Welcome to the 2015 edition of Deloitte’s predictions for the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) sectors.
Our objective with this report is to analyze the key market developments over the next 12-18 months. Our points of view are built around hundreds of meetings with industry executives and commentators from around the world, as well as our proprietary programs of research with tens of thousands of consumers worldwide.
Our endeavor is to provide a considered point of view on key industry trends. In some cases we seek to identify the drivers behind major inflection points and milestones, such as the first billion-unit year for the smartphone sector, or the take-off of contactless mobile payments.
In others our intent is to explain why we are not expecting fundamental change, such as in the use of drones for home deliveries, or in smartphone battery technology or the deployment of miniature satellites, known as nanosats.
We also consider it critical to examine sub-trends. For instance, broadband speeds are, on average, increasing at a double-digit pace, but in many markets the average is being lifted by significant performance improvements among the fastest connections, while slower connections remain sluggish.
There are few other industries as ‘mercurial’ as TMT. It delivers constant, significant change, with the decades of sustained processor power and connectivity speed increases being the best examples. These changes can provoke massive disruption, but can also strengthen existing industries. And this is where predicting gets really interesting.
Arguably the bigger challenge in making predictions about the TMT sector is not about forecasting what technologies will emerge or be enhanced, but in how they will be adopted.
Music has gone digital, but consumer demand for physical books remains robust, with millenials at the vanguard. Indeed 18-34 year olds, counter to some perceptions, remain significant consumers of media content.
Technological advance has enabled e-commerce, but customers are increasingly choosing delivery to bricks-and- mortar stores. 3D printing offers a factory in every home, yet it is enterprise that is driving spend. The Internet of Things (IoT) offers us the capability to remote control multiple aspects of our lives from our smartphones, but we expect companies to reap most of its value in 2015.
We wish you all the best for 2015 and trust that you and your colleagues will find this year’s predictions a useful stimulant in your strategic thinking. We look forward to discussing them with you.